Incumbent Republican Eli Crane faces Democrat Jonathan Nez in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, a rematch of the 2024 contest that Crane won 54.5%-45.5% in a district rated R+7. Both candidates advanced unopposed from the July 21 primaries. Crane’s incumbency, fundraising lead, and alignment with the district’s rural and conservative-leaning areas underpin trader consensus pricing Republicans at 68.5%. Nez’s campaign emphasizes Native American turnout in counties like Apache and Coconino, bolstered by DCCC support and over $1 million raised earlier in the cycle, which has kept Democratic odds near 29.5% amid expectations of competitive turnout efforts. No major shifts have altered the race’s fundamentals since the primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAZ-02 House Election Winner
AZ-02 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
69%
Democratic Party
29%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$1,465 Vol.
69%
Democratic Party
$1,154 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane faces Democrat Jonathan Nez in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, a rematch of the 2024 contest that Crane won 54.5%-45.5% in a district rated R+7. Both candidates advanced unopposed from the July 21 primaries. Crane’s incumbency, fundraising lead, and alignment with the district’s rural and conservative-leaning areas underpin trader consensus pricing Republicans at 68.5%. Nez’s campaign emphasizes Native American turnout in counties like Apache and Coconino, bolstered by DCCC support and over $1 million raised earlier in the cycle, which has kept Democratic odds near 29.5% amid expectations of competitive turnout efforts. No major shifts have altered the race’s fundamentals since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ET
Volume
$2,618End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Eli Crane faces Democrat Jonathan Nez in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, a rematch of the 2024 contest that Crane won 54.5%-45.5% in a district rated R+7. Both candidates advanced unopposed from the July 21 primaries. Crane’s incumbency, fundraising lead, and alignment with the district’s rural and conservative-leaning areas underpin trader consensus pricing Republicans at 68.5%. Nez’s campaign emphasizes Native American turnout in counties like Apache and Coconino, bolstered by DCCC support and over $1 million raised earlier in the cycle, which has kept Democratic odds near 29.5% amid expectations of competitive turnout efforts. No major shifts have altered the race’s fundamentals since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,618End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 11:41 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Eli Crane faces Democrat Jonathan Nez in the November 3, 2026, general election for Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District, a rematch of the 2024 contest that Crane won 54.5%-45.5% in a district rated R+7. Both candidates advanced unopposed from the July 21 primaries. Crane’s incumbency, fundraising lead, and alignment with the district’s rural and conservative-leaning areas underpin trader consensus pricing Republicans at 68.5%. Nez’s campaign emphasizes Native American turnout in counties like Apache and Coconino, bolstered by DCCC support and over $1 million raised earlier in the cycle, which has kept Democratic odds near 29.5% amid expectations of competitive turnout efforts. No major shifts have altered the race’s fundamentals since the primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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