The Bahia gubernatorial race centers on incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) seeking re-election against former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (União Brasil), with the first round scheduled for October 4. Recent September polling from Paraná Pesquisas and Quaest shows the two candidates in a technical tie in both first-round and runoff simulations, with all other registered contenders below 1%. Jerônimo’s government approval stands near 56%, while Neto has maintained a narrow numerical edge in several surveys. Trader positioning favoring Jerônimo at 58.5% over Neto at 40.5% appears driven by incumbency dynamics, Bahia’s historical PT strength in state contests, and assessments of consolidation potential in a likely second-round scenario. Minor candidates remain negligible factors in current probability pricing.