Strong semiconductor-driven export growth and resilient domestic demand have pushed South Korea’s 2026 GDP forecasts higher—to 3.3% by the Bank of Korea and up to 3.7–3.8% by the OECD and JPMorgan—while keeping headline and core inflation above the 2% target, with August CPI at 3.1% and core measures near 3.4%. These dynamics, alongside financial-stability concerns over Seoul housing prices and household debt, support market-implied odds favoring a 25-basis-point hike in November at roughly even odds with no change. The Federal Reserve’s recent tightening has widened the policy-rate gap, adding pressure on the won and reinforcing hawkish views from firms such as JPMorgan and Barclays that anticipate further moves. Traders are weighing the BOK’s gradual pace signaled in its August dot plot and minutes against incoming October data and the central bank’s November outlook update, leaving the near-term path finely balanced between 3.00% and 3.25%.