The Bank of Korea’s August 27 decision to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent—its second consecutive hike—has anchored trader expectations for a pause at the October meeting, with the 80.5 percent implied probability of no change reflecting the central bank’s explicit signal to monitor the effects of prior tightening amid persistent but contained inflation. August consumer prices rose 3.1 percent year-over-year, above the 2 percent target and driven by services and energy components, while core inflation accelerated to 3.4 percent; however, the BOK’s September 10 monetary policy report emphasized evaluating domestic demand spillovers from semiconductor-led growth and external risks such as Middle East tensions before determining the timing and pace of further adjustments. Recent board minutes revealed internal divisions on the August move, supporting a gradual approach, while the updated dot plot pointed to a 3.25 percent median endpoint by year-end. With no major data releases immediately preceding the October decision and markets pricing only an 18 percent chance of another 25 basis point hike, the current odds capture the balance between elevated price pressures and the need to assess policy transmission.