Recent consecutive 25 basis point hikes in July and August lifted the Bank of Korea base rate to 3.00 percent, prompting traders to assign a 64.5 percent implied probability to no change at the October 22 meeting. Strong semiconductor exports have supported upgraded 2026 growth forecasts around 3.3 percent while core inflation remains above target, yet board minutes and recent communications emphasize assessing lagged effects and financial stability risks before further tightening. A 31.5 percent probability of a 25 basis point hike reflects ongoing pressure from the widened Korea-U.S. rate differential and robust activity, with November viewed as the more likely next step amid upcoming inflation releases and any Federal Reserve signals.