Blue Origin’s New Glenn heavy-lift rocket faces an 86.5% market-implied probability of no launch in 2026, driven primarily by the May 28, 2026 pad explosion at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 during a static-fire test. The incident damaged infrastructure and forced a full rebuild using a new horizontal-vertical hybrid integration approach to enable faster future operations. With only one operational pad and manufacturing focused on the 7x2 booster configuration, the company has targeted a return to flight by year-end, but the aggressive timeline follows multiple prior slips and leaves little margin for further technical or regulatory hurdles. Recent updates show ongoing pad reconstruction and cadence planning as of late September, yet the compressed window before December 31 sustains trader skepticism about completing integration, testing, and FAA approvals in time.