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California Homebuying Loan Program Proposition

icon for California Homebuying Loan Program Proposition

California Homebuying Loan Program Proposition

67% chance
Polymarket
NEW
67% chance
Polymarket
NEW
Proposition 37 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would create a $25 billion mortgage loan program for home buyers who make less than 200% of the area median income. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters face Proposition 37 on the November 3, 2026 ballot, a citizen initiative that would authorize the California Housing Finance Agency to issue up to $25 billion in revenue bonds for second-mortgage down payment assistance on qualified new homes. Eligible buyers, defined as state residents earning at or below 200% of area median income, would need to contribute at least 3% equity. Early PPIC polling from May 2026 showed roughly 53% support among likely voters, aligning closely with trader consensus near 59%. The measure qualified for the ballot in April after signature collection and draws backing from real estate groups, labor unions, and former Senate Majority Leader Bob Hertzberg, with no organized opposition reported through mid-2026. Persistent statewide housing affordability pressures and the program's self-funding structure via participant repayments underpin the modest probability edge in current market pricing.

Proposition 37 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would create a $25 billion mortgage loan program for home buyers who make less than 200% of the area median income.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$2,770
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
Proposition 37 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would create a $25 billion mortgage loan program for home buyers who make less than 200% of the area median income. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 37 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would create a $25 billion mortgage loan program for home buyers who make less than 200% of the area median income. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California voters face Proposition 37 on the November 3, 2026 ballot, a citizen initiative that would authorize the California Housing Finance Agency to issue up to $25 billion in revenue bonds for second-mortgage down payment assistance on qualified new homes. Eligible buyers, defined as state residents earning at or below 200% of area median income, would need to contribute at least 3% equity. Early PPIC polling from May 2026 showed roughly 53% support among likely voters, aligning closely with trader consensus near 59%. The measure qualified for the ballot in April after signature collection and draws backing from real estate groups, labor unions, and former Senate Majority Leader Bob Hertzberg, with no organized opposition reported through mid-2026. Persistent statewide housing affordability pressures and the program's self-funding structure via participant repayments underpin the modest probability edge in current market pricing.

Proposition 37 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would create a $25 billion mortgage loan program for home buyers who make less than 200% of the area median income.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Volume
$2,770
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
Proposition 37 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would create a $25 billion mortgage loan program for home buyers who make less than 200% of the area median income. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Homebuying Loan Program Proposition" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 51% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 51¢, the market collectively assigns a 51% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"California Homebuying Loan Program Proposition" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "California Homebuying Loan Program Proposition," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "California Homebuying Loan Program Proposition" is 51% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 51% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "California Homebuying Loan Program Proposition" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.