Elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven the Bank of Canada to raise its 2026 annual inflation forecast to 2.3 percent in the April Monetary Policy Report, up from 2.0 percent in January. March CPI data confirmed a rise to 2.4 percent year-over-year, propelled by a sharp surge in gasoline costs, with projections now pointing to a near-term peak around 3 percent before easing toward the 2 percent target in 2027. These factors anchor trader sentiment toward the 2.5–2.9 percent range as the leading outcome, consistent with skin-in-the-game pricing of transitory energy effects amid stable core inflation and modest GDP growth. Monthly CPI releases through mid-2026 remain key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
2.5–2.9% 48.6%
3.5-3.9% 40.3%
2.0–2.4% 20.0%
1.0–1.4% 5.4%
$16,408 Vol.
$16,408 Vol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
38%
2.0–2.4%
20%
2.5–2.9%
49%
3.0-3.4%
40%
3.5-3.9%
40%
4.0%+
33%
2.5–2.9% 48.6%
3.5-3.9% 40.3%
2.0–2.4% 20.0%
1.0–1.4% 5.4%
$16,408 Vol.
$16,408 Vol.
Jan 18, 2027
<1.0%
$318 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.4%
$355 Vol.
5%
1.5–1.9%
$656 Vol.
38%
2.0–2.4%
$468 Vol.
20%
2.5–2.9%
$502 Vol.
49%
3.0-3.4%
$13,465 Vol.
40%
3.5-3.9%
$287 Vol.
40%
4.0%+
$357 Vol.
33%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven the Bank of Canada to raise its 2026 annual inflation forecast to 2.3 percent in the April Monetary Policy Report, up from 2.0 percent in January. March CPI data confirmed a rise to 2.4 percent year-over-year, propelled by a sharp surge in gasoline costs, with projections now pointing to a near-term peak around 3 percent before easing toward the 2 percent target in 2027. These factors anchor trader sentiment toward the 2.5–2.9 percent range as the leading outcome, consistent with skin-in-the-game pricing of transitory energy effects amid stable core inflation and modest GDP growth. Monthly CPI releases through mid-2026 remain key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$16,408End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven the Bank of Canada to raise its 2026 annual inflation forecast to 2.3 percent in the April Monetary Policy Report, up from 2.0 percent in January. March CPI data confirmed a rise to 2.4 percent year-over-year, propelled by a sharp surge in gasoline costs, with projections now pointing to a near-term peak around 3 percent before easing toward the 2 percent target in 2027. These factors anchor trader sentiment toward the 2.5–2.9 percent range as the leading outcome, consistent with skin-in-the-game pricing of transitory energy effects amid stable core inflation and modest GDP growth. Monthly CPI releases through mid-2026 remain key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$16,408End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated energy prices from Middle East geopolitical tensions have driven the Bank of Canada to raise its 2026 annual inflation forecast to 2.3 percent in the April Monetary Policy Report, up from 2.0 percent in January. March CPI data confirmed a rise to 2.4 percent year-over-year, propelled by a sharp surge in gasoline costs, with projections now pointing to a near-term peak around 3 percent before easing toward the 2 percent target in 2027. These factors anchor trader sentiment toward the 2.5–2.9 percent range as the leading outcome, consistent with skin-in-the-game pricing of transitory energy effects amid stable core inflation and modest GDP growth. Monthly CPI releases through mid-2026 remain key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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