Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept energy prices elevated, holding Canada's headline CPI at 3.0% year-over-year in August 2026, in line with July and market expectations. Bank of Canada projections from its July Monetary Policy Report anticipate inflation easing to around 2.5% over the second half of the year as gasoline prices moderate, with core measures such as CPI-trim and CPI-median already near the 2% target. This balance of persistent headline pressures against contained underlying inflation and a steady 2.25% policy rate drives the closely matched market-implied odds between the 2.5–2.9% and 3.0–3.4% annual ranges for 2026. Key swing factors include oil price volatility and any broadening of price pressures ahead of year-end data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
3.0-3.4% 36.4%
2.5–2.9% 33.8%
3.5-3.9% 15.0%
2.0–2.4% 13.8%
$42,080 Vol.
$42,080 Vol.
Jan 17, 2027
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
3%
1.5–1.9%
2%
2.0–2.4%
14%
2.5–2.9%
34%
3.0-3.4%
36%
3.5-3.9%
15%
4.0%+
3%
3.0-3.4% 36.4%
2.5–2.9% 33.8%
3.5-3.9% 15.0%
2.0–2.4% 13.8%
$42,080 Vol.
$42,080 Vol.
Jan 17, 2027
<1.0%
$1,220 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.4%
$5,465 Vol.
3%
1.5–1.9%
$3,466 Vol.
2%
2.0–2.4%
$2,583 Vol.
14%
2.5–2.9%
$10,211 Vol.
34%
3.0-3.4%
$14,343 Vol.
36%
3.5-3.9%
$4,254 Vol.
15%
4.0%+
$539 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept energy prices elevated, holding Canada's headline CPI at 3.0% year-over-year in August 2026, in line with July and market expectations. Bank of Canada projections from its July Monetary Policy Report anticipate inflation easing to around 2.5% over the second half of the year as gasoline prices moderate, with core measures such as CPI-trim and CPI-median already near the 2% target. This balance of persistent headline pressures against contained underlying inflation and a steady 2.25% policy rate drives the closely matched market-implied odds between the 2.5–2.9% and 3.0–3.4% annual ranges for 2026. Key swing factors include oil price volatility and any broadening of price pressures ahead of year-end data releases.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$42,080End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept energy prices elevated, holding Canada's headline CPI at 3.0% year-over-year in August 2026, in line with July and market expectations. Bank of Canada projections from its July Monetary Policy Report anticipate inflation easing to around 2.5% over the second half of the year as gasoline prices moderate, with core measures such as CPI-trim and CPI-median already near the 2% target. This balance of persistent headline pressures against contained underlying inflation and a steady 2.25% policy rate drives the closely matched market-implied odds between the 2.5–2.9% and 3.0–3.4% annual ranges for 2026. Key swing factors include oil price volatility and any broadening of price pressures ahead of year-end data releases.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$42,080End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept energy prices elevated, holding Canada's headline CPI at 3.0% year-over-year in August 2026, in line with July and market expectations. Bank of Canada projections from its July Monetary Policy Report anticipate inflation easing to around 2.5% over the second half of the year as gasoline prices moderate, with core measures such as CPI-trim and CPI-median already near the 2% target. This balance of persistent headline pressures against contained underlying inflation and a steady 2.25% policy rate drives the closely matched market-implied odds between the 2.5–2.9% and 3.0–3.4% annual ranges for 2026. Key swing factors include oil price volatility and any broadening of price pressures ahead of year-end data releases.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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