Canada’s monthly GDP figure for August 2026 remains closely contested on Polymarket, with the 0.0–0.1% outcome holding a slim lead at 26.5% implied probability amid a wide distribution of nearby buckets. Statistics Canada’s September 29 preliminary estimate showed a 0.2% month-over-month gain after July’s flat reading, supported by mining, quarrying, and retail trade but offset by oil and gas extraction weakness. The official August release due October 30 carries typical revision risk, while broader sentiment reflects Q2’s 3.3% annualized strength giving way to softer Q3 momentum, U.S. tariff pressures on exports, and resilient domestic spending. Traders appear to weigh these crosscurrents against the Bank of Canada’s steady 2.25% policy rate and mixed labor and inflation signals.