Traders view the 2026 Cannes Palme d’Or as unusually open, with Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland holding a narrow 28.5% implied probability lead over Na Hong-jin’s Hope at 26% and La Bola Negra at 19%. The tight spread stems from the directors’ proven festival pedigrees—Pawlikowski’s restrained historical drama and Hong-jin’s genre-bending intensity—balanced against several other auteurs whose prior Cannes showings and critical reputations keep momentum fluid. Upcoming jury deliberations and final press screenings will likely sharpen distinctions among these late-cycle frontrunners before the May 23 announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 30%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin 25%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke 24%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI 19.1%
NEW
NEW
May 23, 2026
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
30%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
25%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
18%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
19%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
15%
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
11%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
5%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
4%
PAPER TIGER by James GRAY
4%
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
3%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
3%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
3%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
3%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
3%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
2%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
2%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
2%
MOULIN by László NEMES
2%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
2%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
1%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
<1%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
<1%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 30%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin 25%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke 24%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI 19.1%
NEW
NEW
May 23, 2026
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
$914 Vol.
30%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
$1,874 Vol.
25%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
$751 Vol.
18%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
$306 Vol.
19%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
$904 Vol.
15%
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
$220 Vol.
11%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
$149 Vol.
5%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
$199 Vol.
4%
PAPER TIGER by James GRAY
$89 Vol.
4%
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
$332 Vol.
3%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
$131 Vol.
3%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
$649 Vol.
3%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
$190 Vol.
3%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
$1,159 Vol.
3%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
$141 Vol.
2%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
$131 Vol.
2%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
$147 Vol.
2%
MOULIN by László NEMES
$131 Vol.
2%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
$131 Vol.
2%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
$43 Vol.
1%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
$132 Vol.
<1%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
$77 Vol.
<1%
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders view the 2026 Cannes Palme d’Or as unusually open, with Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland holding a narrow 28.5% implied probability lead over Na Hong-jin’s Hope at 26% and La Bola Negra at 19%. The tight spread stems from the directors’ proven festival pedigrees—Pawlikowski’s restrained historical drama and Hong-jin’s genre-bending intensity—balanced against several other auteurs whose prior Cannes showings and critical reputations keep momentum fluid. Upcoming jury deliberations and final press screenings will likely sharpen distinctions among these late-cycle frontrunners before the May 23 announcement.
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,792End Date
May 23, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders view the 2026 Cannes Palme d’Or as unusually open, with Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland holding a narrow 28.5% implied probability lead over Na Hong-jin’s Hope at 26% and La Bola Negra at 19%. The tight spread stems from the directors’ proven festival pedigrees—Pawlikowski’s restrained historical drama and Hong-jin’s genre-bending intensity—balanced against several other auteurs whose prior Cannes showings and critical reputations keep momentum fluid. Upcoming jury deliberations and final press screenings will likely sharpen distinctions among these late-cycle frontrunners before the May 23 announcement.
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,792End Date
May 23, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the 2026 Cannes Palme d’Or as unusually open, with Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland holding a narrow 28.5% implied probability lead over Na Hong-jin’s Hope at 26% and La Bola Negra at 19%. The tight spread stems from the directors’ proven festival pedigrees—Pawlikowski’s restrained historical drama and Hong-jin’s genre-bending intensity—balanced against several other auteurs whose prior Cannes showings and critical reputations keep momentum fluid. Upcoming jury deliberations and final press screenings will likely sharpen distinctions among these late-cycle frontrunners before the May 23 announcement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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