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icon for Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

icon for Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV 29%

FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 27%

LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI 23.0%

MOULIN by László NEMES 22.9%

Polymarket
NEW

MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV 29%

FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 27%

LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI 23.0%

MOULIN by László NEMES 22.9%

Polymarket
NEW

MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV

$909 Vol.

29%

FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI

$919 Vol.

27%

LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI

$306 Vol.

23%

MOULIN by László NEMES

$161 Vol.

23%

THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS

$161 Vol.

20%

ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke

$756 Vol.

18%

HOPE by NA Hong-jin

$2,320 Vol.

16%

FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU

$220 Vol.

26%

AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR

$190 Vol.

5%

PAPER TIGER by James GRAY

$156 Vol.

5%

A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET

$161 Vol.

4%

DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH

$135 Vol.

3%

EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)

$149 Vol.

12%

GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER

$182 Vol.

3%

PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI

$649 Vol.

3%

THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI

$332 Vol.

3%

SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu

$1,159 Vol.

3%

THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS

$131 Vol.

2%

COWARD by Lukas DHONT

$199 Vol.

23%

NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE

$141 Vol.

2%

NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji

$77 Vol.

<1%

ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY

$132 Vol.

<1%

The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Early screenings and reviews at the ongoing Cannes Film Festival have kept the Palme d’Or race tightly contested among established auteurs, with Pawel Pawlikowski’s “Fatherland” edging ahead on the strength of its lean, historically resonant storytelling and Sandra Hüller’s performance. Andrey Zvyagintsev’s “Minotaur” and László Nemes’ “Moulin” follow closely, buoyed by their directors’ prior competition pedigree and timely themes, while Lukas Dhont’s “Coward” and Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord” benefit from strong guild-level buzz and emotional depth. Critical reception remains mixed for later entries like Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “All of a Sudden,” preventing any single film from pulling away. With the jury presided over by Park Chan-wook and several key premieres still ahead, trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, as historical voting patterns favor directors with proven festival momentum yet allow for late surges based on final-week reactions.

The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,545
End Date
May 23, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Early screenings and reviews at the ongoing Cannes Film Festival have kept the Palme d’Or race tightly contested among established auteurs, with Pawel Pawlikowski’s “Fatherland” edging ahead on the strength of its lean, historically resonant storytelling and Sandra Hüller’s performance. Andrey Zvyagintsev’s “Minotaur” and László Nemes’ “Moulin” follow closely, buoyed by their directors’ prior competition pedigree and timely themes, while Lukas Dhont’s “Coward” and Cristian Mungiu’s “Fjord” benefit from strong guild-level buzz and emotional depth. Critical reception remains mixed for later entries like Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s “All of a Sudden,” preventing any single film from pulling away. With the jury presided over by Park Chan-wook and several key premieres still ahead, trader sentiment reflects this uncertainty, as historical voting patterns favor directors with proven festival momentum yet allow for late surges based on final-week reactions.

The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,545
End Date
May 23, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" at 28%, followed by "FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" is "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.