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icon for Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

icon for Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

HOPE by NA Hong-jin 27%

MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV 25%

FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 24%

LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI 20.1%

Polymarket
NEW

HOPE by NA Hong-jin 27%

MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV 25%

FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 24%

LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI 20.1%

Polymarket
NEW

HOPE by NA Hong-jin

$1,826 Vol.

27%

MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV

$876 Vol.

25%

FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI

$880 Vol.

24%

LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI

$278 Vol.

20%

THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS

$103 Vol.

18%

COWARD by Lukas DHONT

$171 Vol.

17%

ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke

$710 Vol.

16%

DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH

$38 Vol.

12%

FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU

$192 Vol.

18%

GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER

$119 Vol.

5%

PAPER TIGER by James GRAY

$61 Vol.

4%

EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)

$111 Vol.

4%

THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI

$304 Vol.

3%

PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI

$621 Vol.

3%

AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR

$162 Vol.

3%

A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET

$103 Vol.

3%

ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY

$104 Vol.

3%

SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu

$1,154 Vol.

3%

THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS

$103 Vol.

3%

NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE

$113 Vol.

2%

MOULIN by László NEMES

$103 Vol.

18%

NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji

$72 Vol.

<1%

The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland leads the Cannes Palme d’Or market with strong momentum following its world premiere, which earned a six-minute standing ovation and praise for its restrained postwar drama and performances from Sandra Hüller. This early critical reception has positioned the Polish director, a prior Best Director winner, ahead of Na Hong-jin’s long-awaited Hope at 26 percent, as traders weigh auteur pedigrees and festival buzz. The tightly contested field reflects balanced competition among established voices like Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, and Andrey Zvyagintsev, where historical voting patterns favor films with distinctive stylistic signatures and strong ensemble work. Upcoming premieres and final jury deliberations remain key swing factors in this unpredictable awards environment.

The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,206
End Date
May 23, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pawel Pawlikowski’s Fatherland leads the Cannes Palme d’Or market with strong momentum following its world premiere, which earned a six-minute standing ovation and praise for its restrained postwar drama and performances from Sandra Hüller. This early critical reception has positioned the Polish director, a prior Best Director winner, ahead of Na Hong-jin’s long-awaited Hope at 26 percent, as traders weigh auteur pedigrees and festival buzz. The tightly contested field reflects balanced competition among established voices like Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, and Andrey Zvyagintsev, where historical voting patterns favor films with distinctive stylistic signatures and strong ensemble work. Upcoming premieres and final jury deliberations remain key swing factors in this unpredictable awards environment.

The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,206
End Date
May 23, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "HOPE by NA Hong-jin" at 27%, followed by "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 27¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" is "HOPE by NA Hong-jin" at 27%, meaning the market assigns a 27% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.