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icon for Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

icon for Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner

FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 27%

MOULIN by László NEMES 24.1%

ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke 24%

LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI 22.7%

Polymarket
NEW

FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI 27%

MOULIN by László NEMES 24.1%

ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke 24%

LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI 22.7%

Polymarket
NEW

FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI

$919 Vol.

27%

MOULIN by László NEMES

$161 Vol.

24%

ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke

$758 Vol.

28%

LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI

$306 Vol.

23%

MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV

$909 Vol.

22%

ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY

$132 Vol.

16%

HOPE by NA Hong-jin

$2,320 Vol.

10%

FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU

$220 Vol.

9%

AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR

$190 Vol.

5%

PAPER TIGER by James GRAY

$156 Vol.

5%

THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS

$161 Vol.

4%

GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER

$182 Vol.

3%

A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET

$161 Vol.

3%

PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI

$649 Vol.

3%

SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu

$1,159 Vol.

3%

THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI

$332 Vol.

2%

NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE

$146 Vol.

2%

THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS

$131 Vol.

2%

COWARD by Lukas DHONT

$199 Vol.

23%

EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)

$184 Vol.

12%

DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH

$135 Vol.

1%

NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji

$77 Vol.

1%

The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight race for the Palme d’Or reflects a stacked competition featuring multiple established auteurs whose prior festival successes and critical acclaim have fueled trader interest. Films like Minotaur from Andrey Zvyagintsev and All of a Sudden from Ryusuke Hamaguchi sit at the front of the pack, buoyed by their directors’ track records of nuanced storytelling and strong industry narratives, while Fatherland from Paweł Pawlikowski and Fjord from Cristian Mungiu remain close behind thanks to their prestige casting and thematic depth. With screenings underway and the jury led by Park Chan-wook set to deliberate through late May, momentum could shift quickly based on audience reactions and early critical consensus. Historical patterns show that late surprises from lesser-hyped entries often emerge, keeping the field wide open.

The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,552
End Date
May 23, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The tight race for the Palme d’Or reflects a stacked competition featuring multiple established auteurs whose prior festival successes and critical acclaim have fueled trader interest. Films like Minotaur from Andrey Zvyagintsev and All of a Sudden from Ryusuke Hamaguchi sit at the front of the pack, buoyed by their directors’ track records of nuanced storytelling and strong industry narratives, while Fatherland from Paweł Pawlikowski and Fjord from Cristian Mungiu remain close behind thanks to their prestige casting and thematic depth. With screenings underway and the jury led by Park Chan-wook set to deliberate through late May, momentum could shift quickly based on audience reactions and early critical consensus. Historical patterns show that late surprises from lesser-hyped entries often emerge, keeping the field wide open.

The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,552
End Date
May 23, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
The Cannes Film Festival is held annually in Cannes, France. The 2026 Cannes Film Festival is scheduled to be held on May 23, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 22 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke" at 28%, followed by "FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI" at 27%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 28¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner," browse the 22 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" is "ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke" at 28%, meaning the market assigns a 28% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI" at 27%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.