Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” drives the market’s strong 69.5% implied probability for CMA Single of the Year, fueled by its record-shattering 22-plus weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, simultaneous leadership across country and all-genre charts, and prior ACM Single of the Year win. The track’s crossover dominance, co-written and produced with Miranda Lambert, has reshaped 2026 country narratives and positioned Langley as the category frontrunner despite her dual nomination for “Be Her.” Nominations announced September 10 highlighted four female-led entries for the first time, yet trader consensus reflects the song’s unmatched commercial and cultural momentum heading into the November 18 ceremony. Lower odds for Lainey Wilson’s “Somewhere Over Laredo,” Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You,” and Cody Johnson’s “The Fall” align with their more modest chart peaks and lack of comparable industry sweep.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCMA Single of the Year 2026
CMA Single of the Year 2026
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) 70%
Somewhere Over Laredo (Lainey Wilson) 10%
I Knew It, I Knew You (Taylor Swift) 8%
Be Her (Ella Langley) 3.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 18, 2026
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley)
70%
Somewhere Over Laredo (Lainey Wilson)
10%
I Knew It, I Knew You (Taylor Swift)
8%
Be Her (Ella Langley)
3%
The Fall (Cody Johnson)
2%
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) 70%
Somewhere Over Laredo (Lainey Wilson) 10%
I Knew It, I Knew You (Taylor Swift) 8%
Be Her (Ella Langley) 3.0%
NEW
NEW
Nov 18, 2026
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley)
$73 Vol.
70%
Somewhere Over Laredo (Lainey Wilson)
$63 Vol.
10%
I Knew It, I Knew You (Taylor Swift)
$13 Vol.
8%
Be Her (Ella Langley)
$181 Vol.
3%
The Fall (Cody Johnson)
$33 Vol.
2%
The Country Music Association Awards are presented annually by the Country Music Association (CMA) to honor outstanding achievement in country music. The 60th Annual Country Music Association Awards are currently scheduled for November 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed single that wins the 60th Annual Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year.
If a listed single is not officially nominated for the Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the tied winning single whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the CMA Awards and the Country Music Association, including data from their website (e.g., https://cmaawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” drives the market’s strong 69.5% implied probability for CMA Single of the Year, fueled by its record-shattering 22-plus weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, simultaneous leadership across country and all-genre charts, and prior ACM Single of the Year win. The track’s crossover dominance, co-written and produced with Miranda Lambert, has reshaped 2026 country narratives and positioned Langley as the category frontrunner despite her dual nomination for “Be Her.” Nominations announced September 10 highlighted four female-led entries for the first time, yet trader consensus reflects the song’s unmatched commercial and cultural momentum heading into the November 18 ceremony. Lower odds for Lainey Wilson’s “Somewhere Over Laredo,” Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You,” and Cody Johnson’s “The Fall” align with their more modest chart peaks and lack of comparable industry sweep.
The Country Music Association Awards are presented annually by the Country Music Association (CMA) to honor outstanding achievement in country music. The 60th Annual Country Music Association Awards are currently scheduled for November 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed single that wins the 60th Annual Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year.
If a listed single is not officially nominated for the Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the tied winning single whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the CMA Awards and the Country Music Association, including data from their website (e.g., https://cmaawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed single that wins the 60th Annual Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year.
If a listed single is not officially nominated for the Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the tied winning single whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the CMA Awards and the Country Music Association, including data from their website (e.g., https://cmaawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$304End Date
Nov 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Country Music Association Awards are presented annually by the Country Music Association (CMA) to honor outstanding achievement in country music. The 60th Annual Country Music Association Awards are currently scheduled for November 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed single that wins the 60th Annual Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year.
If a listed single is not officially nominated for the Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the tied winning single whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the CMA Awards and the Country Music Association, including data from their website (e.g., https://cmaawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” drives the market’s strong 69.5% implied probability for CMA Single of the Year, fueled by its record-shattering 22-plus weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, simultaneous leadership across country and all-genre charts, and prior ACM Single of the Year win. The track’s crossover dominance, co-written and produced with Miranda Lambert, has reshaped 2026 country narratives and positioned Langley as the category frontrunner despite her dual nomination for “Be Her.” Nominations announced September 10 highlighted four female-led entries for the first time, yet trader consensus reflects the song’s unmatched commercial and cultural momentum heading into the November 18 ceremony. Lower odds for Lainey Wilson’s “Somewhere Over Laredo,” Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You,” and Cody Johnson’s “The Fall” align with their more modest chart peaks and lack of comparable industry sweep.
The Country Music Association Awards are presented annually by the Country Music Association (CMA) to honor outstanding achievement in country music. The 60th Annual Country Music Association Awards are currently scheduled for November 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed single that wins the 60th Annual Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year.
If a listed single is not officially nominated for the Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the tied winning single whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the CMA Awards and the Country Music Association, including data from their website (e.g., https://cmaawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed single that wins the 60th Annual Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year.
If a listed single is not officially nominated for the Country Music Association Award for Single of the Year when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the tied winning single whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the CMA Awards and the Country Music Association, including data from their website (e.g., https://cmaawards.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$304End Date
Nov 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” drives the market’s strong 69.5% implied probability for CMA Single of the Year, fueled by its record-shattering 22-plus weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, simultaneous leadership across country and all-genre charts, and prior ACM Single of the Year win. The track’s crossover dominance, co-written and produced with Miranda Lambert, has reshaped 2026 country narratives and positioned Langley as the category frontrunner despite her dual nomination for “Be Her.” Nominations announced September 10 highlighted four female-led entries for the first time, yet trader consensus reflects the song’s unmatched commercial and cultural momentum heading into the November 18 ceremony. Lower odds for Lainey Wilson’s “Somewhere Over Laredo,” Taylor Swift’s “I Knew It, I Knew You,” and Cody Johnson’s “The Fall” align with their more modest chart peaks and lack of comparable industry sweep.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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