Recent August CPI data, showing core inflation easing to 2.4% YoY but with a firmer-than-expected 0.29% monthly gain driven by services and shelter components, has anchored trader focus on whether September's reading will hold at that level or rebound amid elevated energy prices and persistent supercore pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this tight contest between 2.4% and 2.5% outcomes, as analysts project a 0.20% m/m core increase that could translate to either figure depending on rounding, seasonal factors, and details in goods versus services ex-shelter. Upcoming October 14 release and ongoing FOMC scrutiny of inflation persistence versus labor market resilience remain key swing elements in this closely balanced pricing.