Recent August Core CPI data, showing a 2.4% year-over-year rate that matched expectations while the monthly core reading accelerated to 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus, has anchored Polymarket-implied odds tightly between 2.4% and 2.5% for September. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and sticky shelter components continue to offset broader disinflation trends in goods, leaving trader consensus sensitive to incoming labor-market figures and services-price momentum. With the Cleveland Fed nowcast at 2.39% and the FOMC weighing rate-path adjustments ahead of its next meeting, outcomes hinge on whether monthly volatility persists or yields further annual moderation toward the 2% target.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2.5% 21%
2.4% 20%
2.3% 13%
2.6% 12%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤2.0%
5%
2.1%
8%
2.2%
8%
2.3%
13%
2.4%
23%
2.5%
33%
2.6%
12%
2.7%
8%
2.8%
5%
≥2.9%
10%
2.5% 21%
2.4% 20%
2.3% 13%
2.6% 12%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤2.0%
$81 Vol.
5%
2.1%
$81 Vol.
8%
2.2%
$101 Vol.
8%
2.3%
$101 Vol.
13%
2.4%
$121 Vol.
23%
2.5%
$134 Vol.
33%
2.6%
$101 Vol.
12%
2.7%
$121 Vol.
8%
2.8%
$81 Vol.
5%
≥2.9%
$150 Vol.
10%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August Core CPI data, showing a 2.4% year-over-year rate that matched expectations while the monthly core reading accelerated to 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus, has anchored Polymarket-implied odds tightly between 2.4% and 2.5% for September. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and sticky shelter components continue to offset broader disinflation trends in goods, leaving trader consensus sensitive to incoming labor-market figures and services-price momentum. With the Cleveland Fed nowcast at 2.39% and the FOMC weighing rate-path adjustments ahead of its next meeting, outcomes hinge on whether monthly volatility persists or yields further annual moderation toward the 2% target.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,072End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August Core CPI data, showing a 2.4% year-over-year rate that matched expectations while the monthly core reading accelerated to 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus, has anchored Polymarket-implied odds tightly between 2.4% and 2.5% for September. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and sticky shelter components continue to offset broader disinflation trends in goods, leaving trader consensus sensitive to incoming labor-market figures and services-price momentum. With the Cleveland Fed nowcast at 2.39% and the FOMC weighing rate-path adjustments ahead of its next meeting, outcomes hinge on whether monthly volatility persists or yields further annual moderation toward the 2% target.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 12-month period ending September 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,072End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:29 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August Core CPI data, showing a 2.4% year-over-year rate that matched expectations while the monthly core reading accelerated to 0.3% against a 0.2% consensus, has anchored Polymarket-implied odds tightly between 2.4% and 2.5% for September. Elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and sticky shelter components continue to offset broader disinflation trends in goods, leaving trader consensus sensitive to incoming labor-market figures and services-price momentum. With the Cleveland Fed nowcast at 2.39% and the FOMC weighing rate-path adjustments ahead of its next meeting, outcomes hinge on whether monthly volatility persists or yields further annual moderation toward the 2% target.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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