Elon Musk’s consistent posting cadence on X during routine periods underpins the overwhelming market consensus for 40-64 tweets across the three-day window. Recent analyses show his baseline activity often settles in the 15-20 posts per day range absent major catalysts, aligning precisely with the implied range once replies are excluded per market rules. Traders have priced in this steady rhythm, reinforced by the absence of breaking developments, launches, or political flashpoints that historically drive spikes. An upset into higher bins would require an unexpected surge from a high-profile event such as a SpaceX milestone, regulatory announcement, or viral controversy that dramatically elevates his engagement volume before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$551,382 Vol.
$551,382 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
<40
No
40-64
Yes
65-89
No
90-114
No
115-139
No
140-164
No
165-189
No
190-214
No
215-239
No
240+
No
40-64 100.0%
<40 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$551,382 Vol.
$551,382 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
<40
$78,798 Vol.
No
40-64
$124,182 Vol.
Yes
65-89
$143,302 Vol.
No
90-114
$116,477 Vol.
No
115-139
$64,680 Vol.
No
140-164
$11,250 Vol.
No
165-189
$2,339 Vol.
No
190-214
$5,156 Vol.
No
215-239
$2,618 Vol.
No
240+
$2,578 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s consistent posting cadence on X during routine periods underpins the overwhelming market consensus for 40-64 tweets across the three-day window. Recent analyses show his baseline activity often settles in the 15-20 posts per day range absent major catalysts, aligning precisely with the implied range once replies are excluded per market rules. Traders have priced in this steady rhythm, reinforced by the absence of breaking developments, launches, or political flashpoints that historically drive spikes. An upset into higher bins would require an unexpected surge from a high-profile event such as a SpaceX milestone, regulatory announcement, or viral controversy that dramatically elevates his engagement volume before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$551,382End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s consistent posting cadence on X during routine periods underpins the overwhelming market consensus for 40-64 tweets across the three-day window. Recent analyses show his baseline activity often settles in the 15-20 posts per day range absent major catalysts, aligning precisely with the implied range once replies are excluded per market rules. Traders have priced in this steady rhythm, reinforced by the absence of breaking developments, launches, or political flashpoints that historically drive spikes. An upset into higher bins would require an unexpected surge from a high-profile event such as a SpaceX milestone, regulatory announcement, or viral controversy that dramatically elevates his engagement volume before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 14 12:00 PM ET to September 16, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$551,382End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Elon Musk’s consistent posting cadence on X during routine periods underpins the overwhelming market consensus for 40-64 tweets across the three-day window. Recent analyses show his baseline activity often settles in the 15-20 posts per day range absent major catalysts, aligning precisely with the implied range once replies are excluded per market rules. Traders have priced in this steady rhythm, reinforced by the absence of breaking developments, launches, or political flashpoints that historically drive spikes. An upset into higher bins would require an unexpected surge from a high-profile event such as a SpaceX milestone, regulatory announcement, or viral controversy that dramatically elevates his engagement volume before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions