The near-even split at Monza reflects its historical safety car frequency of roughly 50% across recent editions, driven by incidents at the chicanes, gravel excursions, and occasional mechanical issues on the high-speed Temple of Speed layout. The 2026 regulations introduce active aerodynamics, significantly increased electrical power deployment, and altered handling characteristics that teams are still adapting to mid-season, raising the chance of speed differentials, debris from vulnerable components like bargeboards, or reliability lapses that could trigger a deployment. Enhanced crash structures and other safety upgrades provide some mitigation, yet the combination of an aggressive track and evolving car dynamics keeps outcomes balanced. Late-season form, weather forecasts, or specific reliability updates could shift probabilities in either direction before race weekend.