Recent polls in the open 2026 Georgia gubernatorial contest show Republican nominee Rick Jackson and Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms locked in a toss-up, with averages placing Jackson at 46-48% and Bottoms at 44-46% among likely voters. Both candidates remain well below the 50% threshold required to avoid a December runoff under state rules, with undecided shares typically ranging from 5-9%. Jackson consolidated Republican support after defeating Burt Jones in the June primary runoff, while Bottoms secured her nomination outright in May. No major late-September developments, such as debates, endorsements, or shifts in key voting blocs like suburban or Black voters, have altered the narrow margins. Trader consensus on an outright first-round winner reflects expectations that undecideds and turnout patterns could push one candidate over the majority line before November 3.