Recent polls show Marine Le Pen leading first-round intentions at 34-37 percent, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon holding second at 17-19 percent amid October protests that lifted his support. This leaves third place contested among Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann, and David Lisnard, whose shares range from single digits to low teens depending on centrist lineups. Trader prices reflect that fragmentation, with Mélenchon at 29.5 percent, Philippe near 24.5 percent, Lisnard at 16.4 percent, and Glucksmann at 9.5 percent for third. Infighting between Philippe and Gabriel Attal, plus Lisnard’s gains, keeps the field open. A unified center-right ticket, further left consolidation, or shifts in turnout could separate the contenders before the April 2027 first round.