Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a southeasterly flow advecting warmer air into the Netherlands, supporting afternoon highs of 24–26 °C in Amsterdam on September 29, well above the 17.3 °C climatological average. This pattern has driven the market’s concentration on 24 °C and higher outcomes, reflecting consensus on limited cloud cover and modest winds during peak heating hours. Historical records show a September 29 maximum of 25.3 °C, underscoring that current guidance sits near the upper end of typical late-summer variability. Short-range model runs remain the dominant influence on trader positioning ahead of final observations from Schiphol or official KNMI data.