**Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged on a 28°C daily maximum for Beijing on August 16, 2026, reflecting the latest model guidance and official forecasts.** Recent outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles project partly cloudy conditions with scattered thundershowers that limit solar heating and cap peak temperatures near this level, consistent with late-August seasonal moderation in the region. Official bulletins list a high around 29°C under thunderstorms or cloudy skies, with the precise 28°C outcome aligning closely enough to dominate the market-implied probability. Realistic challenges include a shift in atmospheric steering patterns or reduced cloud cover allowing stronger insolation to push readings toward 30°C, while heavier or earlier rainfall could hold the maximum at 27°C or below. Updated model runs and surface observations throughout the day will determine whether the current positioning holds through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on August 16?
Highest temperature in Beijing on August 16?
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$115,908 Vol.
$115,908 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
Yes
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
28°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$115,908 Vol.
$115,908 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
23°C or below
$4,616 Vol.
No
24°C
$14,021 Vol.
No
25°C
$12,895 Vol.
No
26°C
$12,868 Vol.
No
27°C
$11,643 Vol.
No
28°C
$10,690 Vol.
Yes
29°C
$13,556 Vol.
No
30°C
$12,339 Vol.
No
31°C
$9,228 Vol.
No
32°C
$7,424 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$6,628 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged on a 28°C daily maximum for Beijing on August 16, 2026, reflecting the latest model guidance and official forecasts.** Recent outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles project partly cloudy conditions with scattered thundershowers that limit solar heating and cap peak temperatures near this level, consistent with late-August seasonal moderation in the region. Official bulletins list a high around 29°C under thunderstorms or cloudy skies, with the precise 28°C outcome aligning closely enough to dominate the market-implied probability.
Realistic challenges include a shift in atmospheric steering patterns or reduced cloud cover allowing stronger insolation to push readings toward 30°C, while heavier or earlier rainfall could hold the maximum at 27°C or below. Updated model runs and surface observations throughout the day will determine whether the current positioning holds through resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$115,908End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged on a 28°C daily maximum for Beijing on August 16, 2026, reflecting the latest model guidance and official forecasts.** Recent outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles project partly cloudy conditions with scattered thundershowers that limit solar heating and cap peak temperatures near this level, consistent with late-August seasonal moderation in the region. Official bulletins list a high around 29°C under thunderstorms or cloudy skies, with the precise 28°C outcome aligning closely enough to dominate the market-implied probability.
Realistic challenges include a shift in atmospheric steering patterns or reduced cloud cover allowing stronger insolation to push readings toward 30°C, while heavier or earlier rainfall could hold the maximum at 27°C or below. Updated model runs and surface observations throughout the day will determine whether the current positioning holds through resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$115,908End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus on Polymarket has converged on a 28°C daily maximum for Beijing on August 16, 2026, reflecting the latest model guidance and official forecasts.** Recent outputs from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles project partly cloudy conditions with scattered thundershowers that limit solar heating and cap peak temperatures near this level, consistent with late-August seasonal moderation in the region. Official bulletins list a high around 29°C under thunderstorms or cloudy skies, with the precise 28°C outcome aligning closely enough to dominate the market-implied probability. Realistic challenges include a shift in atmospheric steering patterns or reduced cloud cover allowing stronger insolation to push readings toward 30°C, while heavier or earlier rainfall could hold the maximum at 27°C or below. Updated model runs and surface observations throughout the day will determine whether the current positioning holds through resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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