Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS runs, show broad consensus for a daytime high near 26°C in Beijing on October 9 under mostly sunny skies and light southerly flow, supporting the market's heaviest weighting at that level. This outcome aligns with observed trends of above-average autumn temperatures driven by persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover, exceeding the historical October mean high of roughly 19–21°C. Minor model spreads introduce the secondary 27°C and 25°C probabilities, while cooler or warmer extremes remain low-probability given stable steering patterns and limited moisture. Traders are monitoring the final pre-event model updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration for any last adjustments to boundary-layer mixing or wind shifts that could nudge the peak by 1°C.