Recent forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models indicate a post-frontal air mass and persistent cloud cover will limit daytime heating in Buenos Aires on October 8, keeping the maximum temperature centered on 17–19 °C. Southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air, combined with 70–90 % cloud fractions and light precipitation chances, suppress the usual spring insolation that historically produces highs near 21 °C. Ensemble spread remains modest because steering patterns are already established, yet small differences in frontal timing or brief clearing could shift the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders therefore assign the highest probabilities to the 17 °C, 18 °C, and 19 °C bins, reflecting both the narrow forecast envelope and the resolution criteria tied to official observations.