**Persistent light rain and extensive cloud cover are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Chengdu on September 23.** Multiple forecasts indicate overcast skies with intermittent light rain or showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and keep maximum temperatures in the mid-20s Celsius range. Recent model runs and local meteorological guidance project highs of 24–26 °C under these conditions, consistent with typical late-September values when precipitation suppresses diurnal warming. Trader consensus clusters around 25–28 °C because small differences in rain timing, cloud thickness, or brief sunny breaks can shift the daily peak by 1–2 °C. With resolution depending on the official highest recorded temperature, the narrow spread in probabilities reflects genuine uncertainty in how much the atmosphere will warm before the next frontal influence arrives. Updated model guidance and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 23?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 23?
27°C 25%
25°C 21%
28°C 21%
26°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
7%
23°C
10%
24°C
13%
25°C
19%
26°C
20%
27°C
25%
28°C
21%
29°C
8%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 25%
25°C 21%
28°C 21%
26°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
21°C or below
$173 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$5 Vol.
7%
23°C
$12 Vol.
10%
24°C
$5 Vol.
13%
25°C
$15 Vol.
19%
26°C
$5 Vol.
20%
27°C
$43 Vol.
25%
28°C
$5 Vol.
21%
29°C
$25 Vol.
8%
30°C
$236 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$178 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent light rain and extensive cloud cover are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Chengdu on September 23.** Multiple forecasts indicate overcast skies with intermittent light rain or showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and keep maximum temperatures in the mid-20s Celsius range. Recent model runs and local meteorological guidance project highs of 24–26 °C under these conditions, consistent with typical late-September values when precipitation suppresses diurnal warming.
Trader consensus clusters around 25–28 °C because small differences in rain timing, cloud thickness, or brief sunny breaks can shift the daily peak by 1–2 °C. With resolution depending on the official highest recorded temperature, the narrow spread in probabilities reflects genuine uncertainty in how much the atmosphere will warm before the next frontal influence arrives. Updated model guidance and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$701End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent light rain and extensive cloud cover are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Chengdu on September 23.** Multiple forecasts indicate overcast skies with intermittent light rain or showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and keep maximum temperatures in the mid-20s Celsius range. Recent model runs and local meteorological guidance project highs of 24–26 °C under these conditions, consistent with typical late-September values when precipitation suppresses diurnal warming.
Trader consensus clusters around 25–28 °C because small differences in rain timing, cloud thickness, or brief sunny breaks can shift the daily peak by 1–2 °C. With resolution depending on the official highest recorded temperature, the narrow spread in probabilities reflects genuine uncertainty in how much the atmosphere will warm before the next frontal influence arrives. Updated model guidance and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term drivers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$701End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent light rain and extensive cloud cover are the dominant factors capping daytime heating in Chengdu on September 23.** Multiple forecasts indicate overcast skies with intermittent light rain or showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and keep maximum temperatures in the mid-20s Celsius range. Recent model runs and local meteorological guidance project highs of 24–26 °C under these conditions, consistent with typical late-September values when precipitation suppresses diurnal warming. Trader consensus clusters around 25–28 °C because small differences in rain timing, cloud thickness, or brief sunny breaks can shift the daily peak by 1–2 °C. With resolution depending on the official highest recorded temperature, the narrow spread in probabilities reflects genuine uncertainty in how much the atmosphere will warm before the next frontal influence arrives. Updated model guidance and observational data over the next 48 hours remain the key near-term drivers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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