Recent forecast models from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration indicate persistent cloud cover, widespread light rain, and northwest winds of 5–8 m/s over Chongqing on October 1, limiting daytime heating and capping the maximum temperature near 22 °C. This aligns with the market’s strong 85 % implied probability for a 22 °C high, while the modest 10.5 % chance for 23 °C reflects residual uncertainty in model timing of rainfall and any brief clearing. Autumn transition conditions, with regional humidity above 85 % and suppressed solar insolation, further constrain upward excursions, consistent with climatological October averages of 21–24 °C. Updated runs through September 30 show minimal model spread, reinforcing trader consensus around these lower thresholds ahead of final observational data.