Recent National Weather Service forecasts indicate a high near 93–95°F for Dallas on September 30 under southerly flow, yet increasing afternoon thunderstorm chances of 50–70% introduce notable uncertainty. Cloud cover and evaporative cooling from scattered to likely showers can suppress afternoon peaks by several degrees if convection develops earlier than modeled, while delayed storms would favor readings in the mid-90s. Model consensus shows a warming trend through September 29 before moisture returns, creating a tight distribution across the 88–95°F bins that reflects genuine variability in timing, intensity, and coverage rather than a single dominant outcome. Updated model runs and NWS briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds.