Traders see closely matched probabilities across 35–37°C because ensemble forecasts from major global models show only modest spread in peak daytime heating for Guangzhou on July 24. Recent upper-level ridging has supported daytime temperatures several degrees above seasonal normals, but increasing moisture from the East Asian monsoon and variable low-level cloud cover introduce uncertainty in the exact maximum. Urban heat-island effects in the Pearl River Delta can add 1–2°C locally, while any increase in afternoon convection or sea-breeze influence could cap the high near 35°C. Updated model runs and regional observations expected in the next 24–48 hours will narrow the range and likely shift the tightest probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Guangzhou on July 24?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 24?
37°C 31%
35°C 23%
36°C 21%
38°C or higher 19.3%
NEW
NEW
Jul 24, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
5%
33°C
12%
34°C
16%
35°C
23%
36°C
21%
37°C
31%
38°C or higher
19%
37°C 31%
35°C 23%
36°C 21%
38°C or higher 19.3%
NEW
NEW
Jul 24, 2026
28°C or below
$105 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$15 Vol.
1%
31°C
$20 Vol.
1%
32°C
$47 Vol.
5%
33°C
$0 Vol.
12%
34°C
$3 Vol.
16%
35°C
$12 Vol.
23%
36°C
$5 Vol.
21%
37°C
$11 Vol.
31%
38°C or higher
$73 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see closely matched probabilities across 35–37°C because ensemble forecasts from major global models show only modest spread in peak daytime heating for Guangzhou on July 24. Recent upper-level ridging has supported daytime temperatures several degrees above seasonal normals, but increasing moisture from the East Asian monsoon and variable low-level cloud cover introduce uncertainty in the exact maximum. Urban heat-island effects in the Pearl River Delta can add 1–2°C locally, while any increase in afternoon convection or sea-breeze influence could cap the high near 35°C. Updated model runs and regional observations expected in the next 24–48 hours will narrow the range and likely shift the tightest probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 22, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volume
$406End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see closely matched probabilities across 35–37°C because ensemble forecasts from major global models show only modest spread in peak daytime heating for Guangzhou on July 24. Recent upper-level ridging has supported daytime temperatures several degrees above seasonal normals, but increasing moisture from the East Asian monsoon and variable low-level cloud cover introduce uncertainty in the exact maximum. Urban heat-island effects in the Pearl River Delta can add 1–2°C locally, while any increase in afternoon convection or sea-breeze influence could cap the high near 35°C. Updated model runs and regional observations expected in the next 24–48 hours will narrow the range and likely shift the tightest probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$406End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 12:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see closely matched probabilities across 35–37°C because ensemble forecasts from major global models show only modest spread in peak daytime heating for Guangzhou on July 24. Recent upper-level ridging has supported daytime temperatures several degrees above seasonal normals, but increasing moisture from the East Asian monsoon and variable low-level cloud cover introduce uncertainty in the exact maximum. Urban heat-island effects in the Pearl River Delta can add 1–2°C locally, while any increase in afternoon convection or sea-breeze influence could cap the high near 35°C. Updated model runs and regional observations expected in the next 24–48 hours will narrow the range and likely shift the tightest probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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