**Forecast consensus from multiple models points to a daytime high of 15–16 °C in Helsinki on 2 October 2026 under a strong high-pressure ridge (central pressure ~1035–1040 hPa) with light southerly flow.** This advection of milder maritime air, combined with partial cloud cover limiting daytime insolation and modest boundary-layer mixing, favors a peak near 15–16 °C rather than a push to 17 °C. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in predicted cloud fraction and exact wind backing; GFS-based guidance tends slightly warmer while ECMWF runs lean cooler. Historical early-October maxima average ~14–15 °C, so the current setup represents a modest positive anomaly driven by the persistent anticyclone. With resolution imminent, traders are weighting the 16 °C bin most heavily, reflecting the tight clustering of latest deterministic and ensemble guidance around that threshold.