Official Hong Kong Observatory measurements recorded a daily maximum of exactly 31°C on October 11, 2026, under clear skies, low humidity (55–78%), and light easterly flow that limited cloud cover and allowed strong daytime heating. This aligned closely with seasonal norms for mid-October while exceeding the 1991–2020 average high of roughly 28–29°C. The 100% market-implied odds reflect verified station data rather than forecasts. A post-publication quality-control revision or a market rule specifying a different station or averaging method could theoretically alter the outcome, though such adjustments are uncommon once preliminary figures are released.