Recent National Weather Service model consensus points to a high likelihood of scattered showers and thunderstorms in Houston on May 22, which is the main factor keeping the market-implied odds tightly clustered between 82–85 °F. Increased cloud cover and evaporative cooling from precipitation are expected to limit peak solar heating, while southerly flow advects Gulf moisture that supports instability without widespread clearing. Historical May normals near 89 °F provide context, yet current guidance shows a modest negative departure driven by the same pattern that produced below-average temperatures earlier in the month. Any delay in convective initiation or localized breaks in cloud cover could push readings into the upper 80s, whereas earlier or heavier rain would favor the lower end of the distribution. Updated model runs and evening forecast discussions will provide the next clear signal for traders.