Recent National Weather Service observations and model guidance from the ongoing early-season heat wave have driven the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 94-95°F high in New York City on May 20. Southerly flow under high pressure has sustained afternoon temperatures near 93–95°F amid elevated humidity and minimal cloud cover, aligning closely with climatological expectations for late-May peaks under similar synoptic patterns. Historical analogs from prior heat events confirm that such setups rarely exceed 96°F without stronger upper-level support. The only realistic challenges to this consensus would involve post-event revisions to official LaGuardia or Central Park readings due to sensor calibration or microclimate differences, or unexpected localized cooling from sea-breeze intrusion that official data ultimately do not support.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on May 20?
Highest temperature in NYC on May 20?
94-95°F 99.7%
96-97°F <1%
98-99°F <1%
104°F or higher <1%
$58,239 Vol.
$58,239 Vol.
20 mai 2026
94-95°F
100%
96-97°F
<1%
98-99°F
<1%
100-101°F
<1%
102-103°F
<1%
104°F or higher
<1%
94-95°F 99.7%
96-97°F <1%
98-99°F <1%
104°F or higher <1%
$58,239 Vol.
$58,239 Vol.
20 mai 2026
94-95°F
$8,601 Vol.
100%
96-97°F
$8,897 Vol.
<1%
98-99°F
$2,362 Vol.
<1%
100-101°F
$2,245 Vol.
<1%
102-103°F
$1,502 Vol.
<1%
104°F or higher
$359 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service observations and model guidance from the ongoing early-season heat wave have driven the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 94-95°F high in New York City on May 20. Southerly flow under high pressure has sustained afternoon temperatures near 93–95°F amid elevated humidity and minimal cloud cover, aligning closely with climatological expectations for late-May peaks under similar synoptic patterns. Historical analogs from prior heat events confirm that such setups rarely exceed 96°F without stronger upper-level support. The only realistic challenges to this consensus would involve post-event revisions to official LaGuardia or Central Park readings due to sensor calibration or microclimate differences, or unexpected localized cooling from sea-breeze intrusion that official data ultimately do not support.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 18, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$58,239Data de Término
20 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 18, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent National Weather Service observations and model guidance from the ongoing early-season heat wave have driven the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 94-95°F high in New York City on May 20. Southerly flow under high pressure has sustained afternoon temperatures near 93–95°F amid elevated humidity and minimal cloud cover, aligning closely with climatological expectations for late-May peaks under similar synoptic patterns. Historical analogs from prior heat events confirm that such setups rarely exceed 96°F without stronger upper-level support. The only realistic challenges to this consensus would involve post-event revisions to official LaGuardia or Central Park readings due to sensor calibration or microclimate differences, or unexpected localized cooling from sea-breeze intrusion that official data ultimately do not support.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 20 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,239Data de Término
20 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 18, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service observations and model guidance from the ongoing early-season heat wave have driven the overwhelming 99.7% market-implied probability for a 94-95°F high in New York City on May 20. Southerly flow under high pressure has sustained afternoon temperatures near 93–95°F amid elevated humidity and minimal cloud cover, aligning closely with climatological expectations for late-May peaks under similar synoptic patterns. Historical analogs from prior heat events confirm that such setups rarely exceed 96°F without stronger upper-level support. The only realistic challenges to this consensus would involve post-event revisions to official LaGuardia or Central Park readings due to sensor calibration or microclimate differences, or unexpected localized cooling from sea-breeze intrusion that official data ultimately do not support.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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