Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show a building ridge of high pressure over the Po Valley, favoring warm southerly advection and strong daytime insolation that supports surface highs near 28–29 °C in Milan on May 22. This aligns with the market’s close spread between the 29 °C and 28 °C contracts. Late-May climatology places typical highs at 23–25 °C, so the current setup reflects above-average warmth driven by subsidence and minimal cloud cover. Model runs remain sensitive to small differences in boundary-layer mixing or overnight low-level moisture, which could pull the peak down to 27 °C or allow a brief excursion toward 30 °C. Fresh guidance expected overnight will clarify whether the ridge strengthens or weakens ahead of the afternoon maximum.