Short-term forecast uncertainty from ensemble models is driving the tight spread among Houston's October 7 temperature bins, with National Weather Service and private guidance showing modest spread around seasonal norms. Key variables include the timing and strength of an approaching cold front, Gulf moisture advection, and daytime mixing depth that could either cap highs near 88–91 °F or allow stronger southerly flow to push readings into the mid-90s. Historical early-October climatology places average highs near 86 °F, but current model runs diverge on boundary-layer moisture and cloud cover, keeping the 96 °F+ and 88–91 °F outcomes nearly even. Updated model cycles and morning soundings in the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range.