Current forecast consensus from meteorological models points to a maximum temperature of 20–21°C in Istanbul on October 6, driven by northeasterly flow, partly cloudy skies, and stable high pressure limiting diurnal warming. This aligns with historical early-October averages near 20–21°C and supports the market's strong implied probability for 20°C. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread of recent model runs and low precipitation risk, though minor variations in cloud cover or wind could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Updated agency guidance and afternoon observations will refine resolution criteria ahead of market close.