Current forecasts from the Met Office and ensemble models indicate a maximum temperature of 21–23°C in London on October 5, driven by high pressure maintaining mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and above-average October warmth with minimal cloud cover limiting daytime cooling. This setup supports the market’s heavy weighting toward 22°C (47%) and 23°C (27%), as afternoon peaks are expected near or slightly above 22°C under stable conditions. Recent model runs show little shift in this range, with historical October 5 highs averaging 17.3°C providing context for the elevated outlook. Traders appear to price in the consensus while noting minor uncertainty from potential haze or slight wind variations that could trim the peak by 1°C.