Recent forecasts from the Met Office and ensemble models indicate a high of 23°C for London on September 5 under building high pressure, clear skies, and light westerly winds that limit daytime warming while supporting strong nocturnal cooling. This setup aligns with the market's leading outcomes of 23°C (43%) and 22°C (33%), reflecting model consensus on modest insolation and a fresh Atlantic airstream rather than the warmer southerly flow seen earlier in the week. Summer 2026's record UK heat, amplified by anthropogenic climate change, provides broader context but has little direct influence on this specific synoptic pattern two days ahead. Updated model runs and any shifts in cloud cover or wind speed remain the key near-term variables that could adjust these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in London on September 5?
Highest temperature in London on September 5?
23°C 43%
22°C 33%
24°C 16%
21°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
18°C or below
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
5%
21°C
12%
22°C
33%
23°C
43%
24°C
16%
25°C
6%
26°C
5%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 43%
22°C 33%
24°C 16%
21°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
18°C or below
$15 Vol.
1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
2%
20°C
$0 Vol.
5%
21°C
$82 Vol.
12%
22°C
$202 Vol.
33%
23°C
$389 Vol.
43%
24°C
$50 Vol.
16%
25°C
$26 Vol.
6%
26°C
$75 Vol.
5%
27°C
$0 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$1,953 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Met Office and ensemble models indicate a high of 23°C for London on September 5 under building high pressure, clear skies, and light westerly winds that limit daytime warming while supporting strong nocturnal cooling. This setup aligns with the market's leading outcomes of 23°C (43%) and 22°C (33%), reflecting model consensus on modest insolation and a fresh Atlantic airstream rather than the warmer southerly flow seen earlier in the week. Summer 2026's record UK heat, amplified by anthropogenic climate change, provides broader context but has little direct influence on this specific synoptic pattern two days ahead. Updated model runs and any shifts in cloud cover or wind speed remain the key near-term variables that could adjust these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$2,791End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Met Office and ensemble models indicate a high of 23°C for London on September 5 under building high pressure, clear skies, and light westerly winds that limit daytime warming while supporting strong nocturnal cooling. This setup aligns with the market's leading outcomes of 23°C (43%) and 22°C (33%), reflecting model consensus on modest insolation and a fresh Atlantic airstream rather than the warmer southerly flow seen earlier in the week. Summer 2026's record UK heat, amplified by anthropogenic climate change, provides broader context but has little direct influence on this specific synoptic pattern two days ahead. Updated model runs and any shifts in cloud cover or wind speed remain the key near-term variables that could adjust these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,791End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Met Office and ensemble models indicate a high of 23°C for London on September 5 under building high pressure, clear skies, and light westerly winds that limit daytime warming while supporting strong nocturnal cooling. This setup aligns with the market's leading outcomes of 23°C (43%) and 22°C (33%), reflecting model consensus on modest insolation and a fresh Atlantic airstream rather than the warmer southerly flow seen earlier in the week. Summer 2026's record UK heat, amplified by anthropogenic climate change, provides broader context but has little direct influence on this specific synoptic pattern two days ahead. Updated model runs and any shifts in cloud cover or wind speed remain the key near-term variables that could adjust these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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