Current short-term forecast models from sources including AEMET-aligned and international numerical weather prediction systems indicate a maximum temperature near 25°C in Madrid on October 2, driven by a warm, moist southerly flow ahead of an approaching Atlantic trough. Afternoon instability with 30–50% chances of scattered showers or thunderstorms introduces the main uncertainty: prolonged cloud cover or early precipitation could suppress heating and favor 24°C, while clearer breaks would allow surface temperatures to reach 26°C or higher on the Meseta plateau. Ensemble spreads remain narrow around this range, consistent with early-October climatology where daily highs average 22–23°C. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings on October 1–2 will provide the clearest signals for resolution.