Recent forecast models from sources including the GFS and European centers indicate a peak temperature for Madrid on October 4 most likely between 21–24°C, with trader emphasis on the 23–24°C outcomes reflecting uncertainty in convective timing. Scattered thunderstorms and persistent cloud cover are expected to limit daytime heating under light easterly flow and elevated humidity, preventing stronger surface warming despite seasonal norms. Minor differences between 23°C and 24°C hinge on the exact duration of breaks in cloud cover and the intensity of afternoon convection, factors that short-range models continue to refine. Updated runs overnight will provide the next key data points for resolution.