**Recent forecasts for Mexico City on October 1 point to a daytime high near 23–24°C, with model consensus showing modest afternoon peaks under increasing cloud cover and scattered showers typical of the late rainy season.** Mexico City’s high elevation (approximately 2,240 m) keeps baseline temperatures cooler than at sea level, while the current pattern of moist southwesterly flow supports afternoon convection that often limits solar heating and caps the daily maximum. Official and ensemble guidance from sources such as the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models consistently project highs of 23–24°C, with some runs allowing brief spikes to 25°C if breaks in cloud cover occur before heavier rain develops. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 23°C, 24°C, and 25°C (each near 30.5 %) reflects this narrow but real range of outcomes driven by timing of cloud build-up and precipitation. Historical October averages near 23–24°C further anchor expectations, while the absence of a strong subtropical ridge or unusually dry conditions reduces the likelihood of significantly warmer readings. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will be the key catalysts for any shifts in trader positioning.