**Recent official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) project a maximum of 23–25 °C for Mexico City on October 4, aligning with the market’s tight clustering around 22–24 °C.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly winds associated with a lingering trough and tropical moisture are expected to limit daytime heating, keeping highs near or slightly below the October climatological average of ~23–24 °C at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. Private models show modest spread, with some indicating 20–22 °C under heavier rain and others 24 °C if breaks in cloud allow more insolation. Trader-implied probabilities reflect this genuine forecast uncertainty plus typical model divergence two days out, with the slight edge to 23 °C capturing the current consensus while assigning meaningful weight to both cooler rain scenarios and warmer clearing. Updated SMN briefings and morning observations will provide the next key inputs before resolution.