Official forecasts from Mexico’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional currently indicate a maximum of 20–22°C for Mexico City on October 8 amid persistent cloud cover, northerly winds, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Trader consensus, reflected in the 38% implied probability for 22°C and combined 51.5% for 21–23°C outcomes, aligns closely with this range and historical October averages near 23°C at the airport station. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty from variable rain timing and elevation differences across the basin, with only 7.8% probability assigned to 24°C or higher if skies clear earlier than expected. Updated CONAGUA briefings and next model runs will refine these near-term probabilities ahead of market resolution.