Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Miami on October 5 points to a mostly sunny morning with southeasterly flow and highs near 88°F before afternoon sea-breeze convection develops, carrying a 20-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 p.m. This typical early-October pattern, near the 1991-2020 average high of 87.6°F, explains why 88-91°F bins dominate trader consensus at over 84% combined implied probability. Lingering warmth from the current regime and potential for delayed or limited storm coverage support the edge to 90-91°F, while any earlier or stronger convection could cap readings in the upper 80s. Updated short-range model runs and NHC-adjacent guidance remain the key near-term catalysts.