Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a high near 23–24°C for Milan on October 6 under partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow, following several days of above-climatology warmth. This positions the 23°C outcome as the market leader at 46.5% implied probability, with 24°C and 22°C close behind, reflecting minor spread in peak timing and local measurement. The period’s anomalous warmth—roughly 2–2.5°C above 1991–2020 norms at 1,500 m—supports values well above the October average high of 17–19°C, though increasing cloud cover and a shift toward showers by October 7 limit upside potential. Traders are weighting official station readings, with fresh model runs expected to refine the exact maximum before resolution.