Latest official forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and regional models project a daytime high in Milan on September 26 near 23–25 °C under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow, consistent with the market’s heaviest weighting toward 23 °C (57.5 %) and 24 °C (36 %). These outcomes reflect the current consensus of numerical weather prediction runs initialized on 25 September, which show modest diurnal warming from overnight lows around 16 °C and minimal cloud cover limiting daytime heating. Historical September climatology for the city centers near 22–24 °C, so the implied probabilities align with both model guidance and seasonal baselines. Updated model outputs and any observed temperature trends during the final 24 hours before local midnight will determine whether the distribution shifts further.