Latest numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS and regional models, indicate a daytime maximum of 23–24 °C in Milan on September 26 under partly cloudy to clear skies and light easterly flow. High pressure and minimal moisture advection support modest diurnal warming, with afternoon peaks expected near 22–23 °C before any evening cooling. These conditions align closely with historical September climatology for the Po Valley, where average highs hover around 22–24 °C. Traders have priced the 23 °C and 24 °C outcomes as the clear leaders because ensemble guidance shows low spread and no signals for stronger warming or significant cloud cover that would alter the peak. Updated forecasts from Italian meteorological services and the next model cycle remain the key near-term catalysts.