**Forecast consensus for September 29, 2026, in Moscow centers on a daytime maximum near 15–16 °C under clearing skies and northerly flow.** Multiple models, including GFS-based outputs and Russian Hydrometeorological Center guidance, project highs of 58–60 °F (14–16 °C) with overnight lows near 7 °C, minimal cloud cover after Monday’s rain, and light northwest winds. This setup favors efficient daytime heating under mostly clear conditions without strong warm advection or significant mixing. **The market’s leading outcomes—16 °C (43.5 %), 15 °C (24.0 %), and 17 °C (21.5 %)—reflect this tight cluster of guidance.** Ensemble spreads remain modest because a building high-pressure ridge and post-frontal northerly flow limit both upward and downward deviations. Historical September maxima in Moscow average around 15–17 °C, providing a climatological anchor that further concentrates probability in the 14–17 °C range. **No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours; the primary catalyst remains the expected transition to drier, clearer weather after Monday.** Upcoming official updates from Roshydromet and the next GFS/ECMWF runs will be the key near-term drivers capable of nudging the distribution toward 17 °C (if ridging strengthens) or 15 °C (if residual cloudiness lingers). Trader sentiment therefore tracks the narrow, observationally supported envelope around 15–16 °C.