Recent official forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a stable high-pressure ridge over northern France will deliver mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly winds on October 4, supporting a daytime maximum near 23–24 °C—several degrees above the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 18–19 °C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around this range, with the strongest signals for afternoon readings of 24 °C and only modest upside risk to 25 °C or higher under optimal insolation. The market-implied probabilities align closely with this consensus, reflecting traders’ assessment of the current model runs and the low likelihood of significant cooling or cloud cover before the daily peak is recorded. Updated short-range guidance expected later today will provide the final refinement ahead of resolution.