Traders assign near-certainty to 25°C as Paris’s highest temperature on October 6, driven by real-time surface observations from official meteorological networks showing that exact peak under stable high-pressure conditions. Model consensus from European forecasting centers indicates no further warming or cooling sufficient to shift the daily maximum, consistent with typical early-autumn climatology for the region. This market-implied outcome reflects aggregated trader assessment of verified station data rather than projections. Minor adjustments remain possible only if final quality-controlled hourly records revise the reported high due to localized sensor variations or timing of the peak.