Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for San Francisco on October 3 points to a high near 72–82°F, driven primarily by variable marine layer depth, onshore westerly flow, and limited upper-level ridging that could allow brief warming before afternoon cooling. The spread in outcomes reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any clearing, with historical October averages around 72°F and rare spikes above 85°F tied to offshore wind events. Traders appear to price elevated chances for the upper bins amid model divergence on coastal stratus erosion, while lower ranges capture typical marine influence. Updated NWS runs and local mesoscale guidance over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of market resolution.